Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-10-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Aussie Soars on Strong China Data

Australian dollar rode on strong trade data from China and surged across the board in Asia today. Chinese exports rose an impressive 45.7% in February, well past expectations, after another strong jump of 86% in January. Imports rose 44.7% and trade surplus narrowed to $7.61b. The sustained strength in China's trade is a source of support for global economy. As the top buying of Australia's exports and strong demand of commodities, it was particularly important in keeping Australia away from recession during the economic crisis.

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Special Report

RBNZ to Hold Monetary Policy Unchanged. Focus on the Quarterly MPS

The RBNZ will likely leave the OCR at 2.5%, for the 11th month, at the March meeting. Therefore, the market will focus on the Monetary Policy Statement as well as how the central bank describe economic outlook. On the whole, we expect the RBNZ will deliver a neutral tone, if not slightly more dovish than January's, on the outlook as economic data released in recent weeks were rather mixed. The post- meeting statement should retain the reference that 'we would expect to begin removing policy stimulus around the middle of 2010'.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.3510

Although the single currency recovered after falling to 1.3537 yesterday, above 1.3640/45 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3705 to 1.3537) is needed to signal the retreat from 1.3705 is over and bring stronger rebound towards 1.3705, once this resistance is penetrated, this would bring test of resistance at 1.3736 but it is necessary to see a breach of this level to confirm the rise from 1.3433 low has resumed and bring stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.3789 and later towards resistance at 1.3840/51.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5065

As cable has remained under pressure after falling from 1.5197, we are keeping our view that correction from 1.4781 low has possibly ended at 1.5197 and bearishness remains for further weakness to 1.4900 and then towards 1.4855 support, however, break of latter level is needed to confirm recent decline has resumed and bring retest of 1.4781 later this week.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9080; (P) 0.9114; (R1) 0.9172; More

AUD/USD's rally resumes after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 0.9161 so far today. Intraday bias is on the upside for the moment and further rise should be seen towards 100% projection of 0.8577 to 0.9070 from 0.8802 at 0.9295 next. On the downside below 0.9053 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations. Nevertheless, break of 0.8802 support is needed to indicate that rise from 0.8577 is finished. Otherwise, another rally is still in favor in case of pullback.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPAUD 1.6338 1.6405 -67 -0.41%
NZDJPY 63.48 63.22 +26 +0.41%
GBPUSD 1.4941 1.4995 -54 -0.36%
NZDUSD 0.7045 0.7027 +18 +0.26%
AUDCAD 0.9401 0.9377 +24 +0.26%

Last Updated: Mar 10, 07:15 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 10, 07:15 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Mar 0.20% -- -2.60%
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Feb -1.50% -1.40% -2.10%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Jan -3.70% -3.80% 20.10%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders Y/Y Jan -1.10% -0.60% -1.50%
7:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Jan 14.5B 13.5B
7:00 EUR German CPI M/M Feb F 0.20% 0.20%
7:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Feb F 0.40% 0.40%
9:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jan 0.30% 0.50%
9:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jan -0.80% -3.60%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jan 0.20% 0.90%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jan 1.40% -1.90%
15:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Jan 0.20% -0.80%
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.1M 4.1M
19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Feb -$202.0B -$42.6B
20:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50%
-- GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Feb -- 0.40%
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