Monday, March 22, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-22-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar and Yen Extend Rally on Greece Concern

Euro remains under pressure as a German government spokesman Wilhelm said today that Chancellor Merkel would consider IMF financial aid for debt-stricken Greece in an emergency. Also, Wilhelm said that decisions on aid for Greece are "not on the agenda" for EU summit on THursday and Friday. Dollar and yen are lifted by risk aversion and there are fresh round of buying as market enters into US session. The greenback is additionally supported by crude oil's dive through 79 level and as gold drops below 1100.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 121.50, O.C.O. Sell At 123.70

Intra-day fall to 122.17 suggests near term downside bias remains for the fall from 125.36 to extend weakness to 121.84 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and possibly towards 121. 45/50, however, as we are keeping our view that wave v has ended at 119.66, downside should be limited to 121.00 and bring another rebound later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9190

Despite last week's rise to 0.9253, the subsequent euro-led retreat suggests a temporary top has been formed (tentatively minor wave 1 of iii) and correction would take place (in minor wave 2 of iii) and retracement to 0.9080 and then towards 0.9027 (38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave 1 rise from 0.8800 to 0.9253), however, reckon 0.8973 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold and bring another rally later in wave 3 of iii early next month.

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0557; (P) 1.0596; (R1) 1.0652; More.

USD/CHF's break of 1.0646 minor resistance suggests that whole correction from 1.0897 is completed at 1.0506 already. Intraday bias is flipped to the upside for 1.0809 resistance for confirmation. Break there will also suggest that whole medium term rise from 0.9916 is resuming and should target 61.8% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0506 at 1.0979 next. On the downside, below 1.0577 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and will probably bring another fall. Nevertheless, we'd still expect strong support from rising trend line (now at 1.0491) to bring rise resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 63.12 64.11 -99 -1.57%
CADJPY 87.93 88.99 -106 -1.21%
AUDJPY 81.89 82.87 -98 -1.20%
EURJPY 121.28 122.50 -122 -1.01%
NZDUSD 0.7014 0.7080 -66 -0.94%

Last Updated: Mar 22, 13:20 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 22, 13:20 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M Feb -1.90% -- -3.40% -3.50%
10:00 CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin -- --
14:30 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks -- --
15:30 GBP BOE Gov King Speaks --
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