Monday, March 22, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-22-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar and Yen Mildly Firmer on Risk Aversion

Dollar and yen are mildly firmer as the week starts on risk aversion broadly lower in reaction to Friday's rate hike from Bank of India. Euro continues to be pressured by concern over the Greece situation while Sterling is weighed down by political uncertainty. Dollar index edges higher to 80.91 while crude oil and gold dip to 80.05 and 1103.5 respectively. No important economic data is scheduled to release today and main focus will be on speech from ECB Trichet and BoE Governor King instead.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.3620

As the single currency has remained under pressure after breaking indicated support at 1.3530 last week, suggesting the entire correction from 1.3433 has ended at 1.3819 earlier and bearishness remains for further weakness to 1.3460/70, however, break of said recent low at 1.3433 is needed to confirm recent decline has resumed and extend fall to 1.3405 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 1.2329 to 1.5145), then towards 1.3350/60 but reckon euro would stay well above 1.3246 (50% projection of 1.4580 to 1.3433 measuring from 1.3819).

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 89.90

Failure to penetrate last week's high at 90.81 suggests further consolidation would take place and although cross-buying in yen may bring retreat to 89.90/0, as long as 89.62-63 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom and previous support) holds, prospect of another rebound remains and break of said resistance at 90.81 would signal pullback from 91.09 has ended and bring retest of this level, above there would extend rise from 88.14 towards 91.50 but as broad outlook is still consolidative, dollar shall falter well below resistance at 92.16.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 122.05; (P) 122.70; (R1) 123.14; More.

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the downside with 123.73 minor resistance intact. As noted before, choppy recovery from 119.64 should have completed at 125.19 already, after failing 125.22 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 134.36 to 119.64 at 125.26). Further fall should be seen to retest 119.64. Break there will confirm down trend resumption to 61.8% projection of 134.36 to 119.64 from 125.19 at 116.09 next. On the upside, above 123.73 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral again. But after all, we'd continue to expect strong resistance at 125.22/26 to conclude the corrective rise from 119.64 and bring down trend resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDUSD 0.7050 0.7080 -30 -0.43%
GBPUSD 1.4951 1.5011 -60 -0.40%
GBPCAD 1.5208 1.5268 -60 -0.39%
AUDCAD 0.9281 0.9311 -30 -0.32%
AUDUSD 0.9124 0.9153 -29 -0.32%

Last Updated: Mar 22, 07:05 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 22, 07:05 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M Feb -1.90% -- -3.40% -3.50%
10:00 CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin -- --
14:30 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks -- --
15:30 GBP BOE Gov King Speaks --
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