Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-3-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Greece to Unveil New Budget Cut Plan, Services and Job Data Awaited

Dollar is mildly lower on news that Greece is going to unveil a new EUR 4.8b deficit cut plan, which include higher tax on tobacco, alcohol and sales, as well as deeper reduction in salaries of state workers. Yield on benchmark 10 year Greek bonds fell to the lowest level since February 12. Meanwhile, CDS linked to the Greek bonds also dropped over 30 basis points to the lowest level since January 18. European majors are seen recovery mildly but still, Euro and Swissy are both limited by near term resistance against dollar for the moment and there is no change in Euro's bearish outlook against commodity currencies. Finalized Eurozone PMI services and retail sales will be released in the European session today.

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BOC Kept Policy Rate at 0.25% but Delivered More Hawkish Statement

As expected, the Bank of Canada left the overnight rate target at 0.25%. Moreover, the central bank reiterated 'conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target'.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Buy At 87.75

Cable's intra-day rebound to 1.5077 (our short entry at 1.5080 did not get a fill) suggest temporary low has been formed at 1.4781 earlier and further consolidation would be seen, above said resistance would bring retracement to 1.5120/30, however, reckon 1.5176-78 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5816 to 1.4781 and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5575 to 1.4781) would remain intact and bring another decline later. Only below 1.4855 (yesterday's low) would signal recent fall has resumed for retest of 1.4781 later, then towards 1.4717 (1.618 times projection of 1.7044 to 1.5708 measuring from 1.6879), however, loss of momentum should limit downside to 1.4674 (1.236 times projection of 1.6459 to 1.5535 measuring from 1.5816).

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.3500

As indicated in our previous update, despite yesterday's brief fall to 1.3433, lack of follow through selling and the subsequent rebound above the Ichimoku cloud top suggest a temporary low has possibly been formed there and gain to resistance at 1.3683-93 would be seen, however, break there is needed to confirm and bring correction of recent decline to 1.3750 but reckon 1.3789 resistance would remain intact.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9040; (P) 0.9070; (R1) 0.9124; More.

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, an intraday top is in place at 0.9137 and bias is turned neutral. Some more consolidations might be seen and deeper pull back to 38.2% retracement of 0.8662 to 0.9137 at 0.8956, cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained well above 0.8841 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 0.8843) and bring rally resumption. Above 0.9137 should target medium term trend line resistance at 0.9220 next.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPJPY 133.37 132.98 +39 +0.29%
CADJPY 85.99 85.77 +22 +0.26%
GBPUSD 1.5005 1.4970 +35 +0.23%
NZDJPY 61.92 61.79 +13 +0.21%
AUDJPY 80.41 80.25 +16 +0.20%

Last Updated: Mar 03, 07:20 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 03, 07:20 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence Feb 80 71 73 74
0:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Feb 1.70% -- 2.30%
0:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q4 0.90% 0.90% 0.20% 0.30%
0:30 AUD GDP Y/Y Q4 2.70% 2.40% 0.60%
7:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Jan 0.00% -0.60% 0.90% 0.90%
7:00 EUR German Retail Sales Y/Y Jan -3.40% -1.10% -2.50% -1.80%
8:55 EUR German PMI Services Feb F 51.7 51.7
9:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Feb F 52 52
9:30 GBP U.K. PMI Services Feb 55 54.5
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jan -0.30% 0.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Jan -1.60% -1.60%
12:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Feb -- -70.40%
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change Feb -10K -22K
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Feb 51 50.5
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.4M 3.0M
19:00 USD Fed Beige Book -- --
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