Thursday, March 11, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-11-10

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Swiss Franc Mildly Lower after SNB

Swiss Franc is mildly lower after SNB left three-month Libor target unchanged at 0.25 and reiterated its stance to"prevent excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro," which would "result in an undesired tightening of monetary conditions." Reactions to the announcement is mild so far. EUR/CHF spikes higher to 1.4628 after the release but was limited below 1.4635 minor resistance. We'd expect EUR/CHF to continue to craw low as dusts settle.

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Special Report

RBNZ Retained Monetary Stance, Raised Growth Outlook But Remained Cautious

As we and the market expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% and reiterated the stance to 'removing policy stimulus around the middle of 2010'. The quarterly MPS also revealed modest upgrades in 2011 GDP growth and inflation. However, potential GDP growth in 2010 has been revised downward. We retain our view that the RBNZ will begin tightening in June with a hike of +25 bps.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 122.00

Euro's rally after early retreat to 121.46 (Tue 09 March) has retained our bullish view that wave v has ended earlier at 119.66 and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 124.50, then towards resistance at 125.24, however, break there is needed to provide final confirmation and bring stronger rebound to 126.00.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9035

As aussie eased after rising to 0.9193 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen, however, pullback should be limited to 0.9030/35 and bring another rally later. Above said resistance would extend gain to 0.9240/50 and then towards 0.9294 (100% projection of wave i)

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0656; (P) 1.0725; (R1) 1.0765; More.

USD/CHF dips to 1.0723 today but recovers in early US session. Consolidation from 1.0897 is still in progress and more choppy sideway trading might be seen. Another fall cannot be ruled out with 1.0809 minor resistance intact. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.0608 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0131 to 1.0897 at 1.0604) and bring rally resumption. On the upside, above 1.0809 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Decisive break of 1.0897 will confirm that whole rally from 0.9916 has resumed. Also, sustained trading above medium term trend line resistance (now at 1.0778) will pave the way to 161.8% projection of 0.9916 to 1.0506 from 1.0131 at 1.1086 next.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPCAD 1.5453 1.5347 +106 +0.69%
NZDUSD 0.6983 0.7019 -36 -0.52%
NZDJPY 63.20 63.52 -32 -0.51%
GBPAUD 1.6434 1.6355 +79 +0.48%
GBPCHF 1.6095 1.6021 +74 +0.46%

Last Updated: Mar 11, 13:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 11, 13:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
20:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q4 F 0.90% 1.00% 1.10%
23:50 JPY GDP Annualized Q4 F 3.80% 4.00% 4.60%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 F -2.80% -2.90% -3.00%
00:30 AUD Employment Change Feb 0.4K 15.2K 52.7K 56.5K
00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Feb 5.30% 5.30% 5.30% 5.20%
10:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin -- --
13:00 CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
13:30 CAD Capacity Utilization Rate Q4 70.90% 70.00% 67.50%
13:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Jan 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
13:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Jan 0.8B 0.4B -0.2B
13:30 USD Trade Balance Jan -37.3B -$41.0B -$40.2B
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 462K 450K 469K
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -107B -116B
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