Monday, March 1, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-1-10

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Sterling's Fall Accelerates, Loonie Lifted by GDP Data

Sterling remains the main focus today as selling intensified in European session. Dollar managed to rebound strongly against European majors but stays is soft against yen and commodity currencies. Data from US saw personal spending rose more than expected by 0.5% in January but income growth missed expectation. PCE deflator was unchanged at 2.1% yoy while core PCE moderated slightly to 1.4% yoy. On the other hand, Canadian dollar is lifted mildly by stronger than expected GDP growth of 0.6% mom in December. Focus now turns to ISM manufacturing index.

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Special Reports

Unchanged Monetary Policy Stance Expected at BoC's Meeting

Both market expectations and economic development evolved recently point to an unchanged monetary policy stance at BoC's March meeting. The central bank will most likely announce to keep its policy rate at 0.25% and keep the statement that 'conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target'. Currently, the market anticipates the first rate hike will be in 3Q10 the earliest.

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RBA to Pause for a Second Month

While RBA' tightening cycle , which began late last year, will continue in 2010, more rate hikes will be delivered in 2H10 as policymakers need to gauge how previous hikes feed through to the economy. We expect the central bank will keep its cash rate unchanged at 3.75% in March. In the minutes for the February meeting, the RBA said the decision to leave the policy rate unchanged was 'finely balanced'. Moreover, the statement 'the widening in the margins between the cash rate and many lending rates, had meant a material adjustment to the stance of monetary policy' indicated RBA's concerns about domestic lending conditions as many commercial banks raised interest rates more than what was guided by the central bank.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 120.80

Despite Friday's retreat to 120.51, as renewed buying interest emerged there and rebounded, adding credence to our view that a temporary low has possibly been formed at 119.66 last week and consolidation with upside bias remains but break of resistance at 122.62 is needed to confirm this view and bring stronger rise towards 123.00/10.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.8900

Aussie's breach of indicated resistance at 0.8957-68 (previous minor resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9072 to 0.8800) signals the retreat from 0.9072 has ended at 0.8800 as wave ii and further gain to said resistance would follow. Above there would add credence to this view and signal the wave iii is under way for gain towards 0.9175 (previous support turned resistance).

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.58; (P) 135.64; (R1) 136.65; More

GBP/JPY's decline accelerates further to as low as 132.13 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for next target of 100% projection of 150.68 to 138.23 from 143.59 at 131.14. On the upside, above 134.48 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside is expected to be limited by 138.23 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPCAD 1.5617 1.6017 -400 -2.56%
GBPAUD 1.6635 1.7006 -371 -2.23%
GBPUSD 1.4906 1.5235 -329 -2.21%
GBPJPY 132.98 135.59 -261 -1.96%
EURGBP 0.9069 0.8942 +127 +1.40%

Last Updated: Mar 01, 07:20 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 01, 07:20 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD Current Account Balance (AUD) Q4 -17.5B -17.2B -16.2B -14.7B
07:00 EUR German Import Price Index M/M Jan 1.70% 0.70% 0.50%
07:00 EUR German Import Price Index Y/Y Jan 1.40% 0.30% -1.00%
08:30 CHF SVME-PMI Feb 57.4 56 56
08:55 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Feb F 57.2 57.1 57.1
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Feb F 54.2 54.1 54.1
09:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Feb 56.6 56.3 56.7 56.6
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jan 9.90% 10.10% 10.00% 9.90%
13:30 CAD GDP M/M Dec 0.60% 0.40% 0.40%
13:30 CAD GDP Annualized Q4 5% 4.00% 0.40%
13:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Jan 0.30% 0.50% -0.10%
13:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jan 3.30% 2.00% -1.70%
13:30 USD Personal Income Jan 0.10% 0.40% 0.40%
13:30 USD Personal Spending Jan 0.50% 0.40% 0.20%
13:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Jan 2.10% 2.20% 2.10%
13:30 USD PCE Core M/M Jan 0.00% 0.00% 0.10%
13:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Jan 1.40% 1.40% 1.50%
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Feb 57.9 58.4
15:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Feb 68.1 70
15:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Jan -0.50% -1.20%
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