Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-31-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar Firmer But Lacks Decisive Momentum Yet

Dollar is generally firmer today against major currencies but lacks decisive momentum for sustainable rebound yet. Euro was weighed down by concern of Greece's ability to borrowing money after poor auction results. Aussie falls after retail sales unexpectedly posted -1.4% mom decline in February. Yen continues to be pressured by risk aversion. However, sterling is mildly lower following Gfk consumer confidence reading. Commodities are mixed with oil staying at 82 level while gold is hovering above 1100.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.3370

Although the British pound rose to as high as 1.5128 yesterday, as cable has retreated after faltering below the Ichimoku cloud top, suggesting consolidation would take place today and pullback towards the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5043) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4962) and bring another rebound later. Above said resistance would bring retracement of the decline from 1.5382 to 1.5159 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5382 to 1.4798), however, as price is expected to gyrate within recent range of 1.4781-1.5382, reckon 1.5240/50 would limit upside and said upper range would remain intact, bring another decline later this week.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 92.15

Despite intra-day rise to 93.60, lack of follow through buying and the retreat from there suggest consolidation would take place and pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 92.86) is likely, below would bring minor correction towards 92.16 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 89.83 to 93.60), however, renewed buying interest should emerge around there and bring another upmove later. Above said resistance would signal recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 93.00 but reckon 93.73-78 (50% projection of 89.75 to 92.96 measuring from 92.12 and previous resistance) would hold and risk has increased for a correction later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 92.25; (P) 92.63; (R1) 93.15; More.

USD/JPY's rally extends further to as high as 93.59 so far today and remains firm. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to 93.74 resistance first. Break there will confirm that whole rally from 81.83 has resumed and should target 161.8% projection of 88.13 to 91.08 from 89.83 at 94.60 next. On the downside, below 91.12 will argue that a short term top is formed and bring more consolidation. Nevertheless, downside of pull back should be contained well above 91.08 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDCAD 0.9302 0.9379 -77 -0.83%
CADJPY 91.61 90.91 +70 +0.76%
EURAUD 1.4671 1.4581 +90 +0.61%
EURJPY 125.09 124.41 +68 +0.54%
AUDUSD 0.9147 0.9196 -49 -0.54%

Last Updated: Mar 31, 07:30 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 31, 07:30 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Mar -15 -13 -14
00:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Feb -1.40% 0.30% 1.20% 1.10%
06:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Feb -9.30% -0.80% -8.10%
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Mar 8K 7K
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Mar 8.20% 8.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb 10.00% 9.90%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Mar 1.10% 0.90%
09:30 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Mar 1.9 1.87
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Mar 40K -20K
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jan 0.50% 0.60%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Mar 61 62.6
14:00 USD Factory Orders Feb 0.50% 1.70%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.4M 7.3M
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