Thursday, March 25, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-25-10

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report

EUR/USD Recovers Mildly as Trichet Extends Collateral Rules

Euro covers mildly today after ECB Trichet extended emergency collateral rules in places into 2011. During the financial crisis ECB lowered the threshold of accepting debt from A- to investment grade level (BBB-). In parallel, ECB will introduce, as of Jan 2011, a graded haircut schedule, "which will continue to adequately protect the Eurosystem." The move is seen as a gesture to show support to Greece to other members of EU. Euro regains some ground against dollar but the recovery is so far weak. The final resolutions for Greece remains in doubt. German Chancellor Merkel indicate that she's ready to cut a deal on supporting Greece, but the aid " must be awarded as a combination from the IMF and collective bilateral aid in the euro zone."

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy On break Of 123.10

Despite yesterday's retreat to 121.41, as the single currency found decent demand above previous support at 121.05 (this week's low), suggesting consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen but break of yesterday's high at 123.03 is needed to signal low has possibly been formed and bring stronger rebound to 123.75/80, break there would confirm and extend gain to 124.50 and later test of 125.36.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy On Break Of 0.9205

Although aussie dropped below said support at 0.9085, lack of follow through selling and the recovery from 0.9071 (yesterday's low) suggests consolidation would be seen and rebound to 0.9190/00 cannot be ruled out, however, a firm break there is needed to signal the correction from 0.9254 has ended, then rise from 0.8578 low should resume in wave iii for further gain towards next chart resistance at 0.9331 and later towards 0.9407.

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 90.96; (P) 91.68; (R1) 93.02; More.

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside with 91.69 minor support intact. Further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 88.13 to 91.08 from 89.83 at 92.78 next. As discussed before, the break of 92.14 resistance confirms that correction from 93.74 has completed with three waves down to 88.13 already. Hence, retest of 93.74 high should be seen after taking out 92.78 fibo level. On the downside, below 91.69 will indicate that an intraday top is in place and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 89.83 support and bring rally resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 65.54 64.75 +79 +1.21%
NZDUSD 0.7097 0.7017 +80 +1.13%
CADJPY 90.78 89.90 +88 +0.97%
USDCAD 1.0170 1.0265 -95 -0.93%
AUDJPY 84.38 83.74 +64 +0.76%

Last Updated: Mar 25, 13:20 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 25, 13:20 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q4 0.80% 0.80% 0.20% 0.30%
21:45 NZD GDP Y/Y Q4 0.40% 0.40% -1.30%
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Feb -1.30% -1.10% -1.00% -1.20%
00:00 USD Fed's Donald Kohn Speaks -- --
00:30 AUD RBA Semi-Annnual Financial Stability Review -- --
07:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Apr 3.2 3.1 3.2
09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Feb -0.40% -0.10% 0.10%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Feb 2.10% 0.80% -1.80%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 442K 450K 457K
13:10 USD Fed's Sandra Pianalto Speaks -- --
14:00 USD Fed's Bernanke Testifies -- --
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 10B -11B
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