Friday, March 12, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-12-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Canadian Dollar Surges on Jobs, Yen Tumbles on US Retail Sales, Franc Strong

Canadian dollar surges in early US session after stronger than expected job report which showed 20.9k expansion versus expectation of 17.5k in February. Unemployment rate also fell to 8.2%. USD/CAD broke out of the five month range and dived through 1.02 level. On the other hand, Swiss franc is also sharply higher today as nothing special was triggered by yesterday's event risk of meeting. EUR/CHF drops through 1.46 level and is heading to February's low of 1.4577 where SNB intervened aggressively.

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Special Report

Commodity Currencies Update: CAD to Outperform

We have revised up our forecasts on Canadian dollar given recent strong economic outlook and upbeat BOC statements. We believe CAD should strengthen against both AUD and NZD as domestic recovery gains traction. When the BOC begins it tightening cycle, probably at the end of 2Q10, the pace would be swift if accompanied with positive indicators. We have also modestly raised Australian dollar's outlook for 2Q10 and 3Q10 as the country's growth has been robust and undoubtedly the strongest among developed economies. For New Zealand dollar, we currently leave our forecasts unchanged, given mixed economic data released in recent month, but will closely monitor changes in news flows.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 122.80

Current firmness suggests the rise from 119.66 low is still in progress and further gain towards resistance at 125.24 would be seen, however, break there is needed to add credence to our view that wave v ended at 119.66 earlier and bring stronger rebound to 126.00, then towards 126.95/00.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9035

As aussie has maintained a firm undertone after early rise to 0.9193, suggesting the rise from 0.8567 is still in progress and further gain to 0.9240/50 and then towards 0.9294 (100% projection of wave i) would be seen, however, overbought condition would limit upside to 0.9331.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0204; (P) 1.0263; (R1) 1.0297; More.

USD/CAD drops sharply to as low as 1.0154 today and the strong break of 1.0205 low indicates that medium term down trend has resumed. Short term outlook will now remain bullish and further decline should be seen towards 161.8% projection of 1.0779 to 1.0369 from 1.0679 at 1.0016 next, which is close to parity. On the upside, break of 1.0322 resistance is needed to indicate that USD/CAD has bottomed. Otherwise, any interim consolidation should be brief. .

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
USDCHF 1.0600 1.0682 -82 -0.77%
CHFJPY 85.35 84.70 +65 +0.76%
GBPUSD 1.5157 1.5060 +97 +0.64%
EURUSD 1.3768 1.3680 +88 +0.64%
USDCAD 1.0174 1.0239 -65 -0.64%

Last Updated: Mar 12, 13:20 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 12, 13:20 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Jan 0.80% 0.40% 0.00% -0.40%
21:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/M Jan 0.30% 0.70% -1.80% -2.00%
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jan F 2.70% 2.50% 2.50%
04:30 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Jan F 18.50% 18.20%
07:00 EUR German Wholesale Price Index M/M Feb 0.10% 0.60% 1.30%
11:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jan 1.70% 0.70% -1.70% 0.60%
11:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Jan 1.40% -1.60% -5.00% -4.10%
12:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Feb 20.9K 17.5K 43.0K
12:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Feb 8.20% 8.30% 8.30%
13:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Feb 0.30% -0.20% 0.50%
13:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Feb 0.80% 0.10% 0.60%
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Mar P 73.9 73.6
15:00 USD Business Inventories Jan 0.10% -0.20%
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