Monday, March 29, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-29-10

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Recovers Mildly, Aussie Strong on Hawkish RBA

Dollar recovers mildly against European currencies in early US session as data showed consumer spending rose for the fifth consecutive month by 0.3% in February. Income, though, was flat. Headline PCE moderated from 2.1% yoy to 1.8% yoy while core PCE dropped to 1.3% yoy. The data suggests that recovery in US economy is getting more sustainable and with improvements in job, spending would gain momentum ahead. Inflation though, remains subdued suggesting there is still no urgent need for Fed to remove policy accommodations.

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Special Report

The EU-IMF Bailout Plan for Greece May Only Provide Short-Term Boost to Euro

The Eurozone members agreed on a package which provides loans for Greece in meeting its debt obligations, in case it is unable to raise funds from international bond markets. Loans, with no actual amount specified while press suggested it to be 22B euro, in the package will be made by both the Eurozone (2/3) and the IMF (1/3). The meeting statement stressed that Provision of the loans will be made only if 'market financing is insufficient'. Financing will not be provided at average euro area interest rates, but at non-subsidised interest rates, so as to 'set incentives to return to market financing as soon as possible by risk adequate pricing'.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 124.10

The single currency rallied according to our expectation in our previous update and met target of long position at 124.50 (with 140 points profit), euro looks set to test resistance at 125.36 and break there would confirm wave iii from 121.05 is underway to 126.00 first.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9080

Although aussie fell to as low as 0.9001 last Friday, as aussie staged a strong rebound from there, adding credence to our view that early fall from 0.9253 is the wave 2 correction which has ended there and upside bias is seen for test of resistance at 0.9199, break there would signal wave 3 is underway for retest of 0.9253 and later towards resistance at 0.9331.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0692; (P) 1.0722; (R1) 1.0771; More.

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and pull back from 1.0750 could still extend further. Nevertheless, we'd expect downside to be contained well above 1.0546 support and bring rise resumption. Above 1.0750 will target 1.0890 resistance next. Break will affirm the case that rise medium term rise from 0.9916 is resuming for another high above 1.0897. However, note that decisive break of 1.0546 will dampen this bullish view and suggest that fall from 1.0897 is still in progress for another low below 1.0506.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 84.58 83.59 +99 +1.17%
AUDUSD 0.9142 0.9039 +103 +1.13%
EURAUD 1.4705 1.4831 -126 -0.86%
AUDCAD 0.9346 0.9278 +68 +0.73%
NZDJPY 65.55 65.12 +43 +0.66%

Last Updated: Mar 29, 13:30 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 29, 13:30 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Feb 4.20% 1.70% 2.60% 2.30%
08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Feb 47.1K 48.4K 48.2K 48.1K
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Mar 97.7 97.1 95.9
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar -17 -17 -17 -17
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Mar -10 -11 -12.7
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Mar 1 1 0.9
12:30 USD Personal Income Feb 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% 0.30%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Feb 0.30% 0.30% 0.50% 0.40%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Feb 1.80% 1.80% 2.10%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Feb 0.00% 0.10% 0.00%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Feb 1.30% 1.30% 1.40% 1.50%
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