Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-10-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Sterling Tumbles on Production Data, Kiwi Firm ahead of RBNZ

Sterling weakens broadly today on poor production data from UK. Industrial production dropped -0.4% mom, -1.5% yoy in January while manufacturing production dropped -0.9% mom and rose 0.2% yoy. Investors remain concerned with the momentum of recovery, fiscal deficit as well as political uncertainty in UK. BoE MPC member Adam Posen said that he hoped the bank is done with quantitative easing, but the comment offered little support to Sterling.

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Special Report

SNB to turn More Hawkish in Monetary Policy

Despite recent positive economic data, the SNB will continue to leave the target range for 3-month LIBOR at 0-0.75, targeting to keep the rate at 0.25%, in March. The Monetary Policy Announcement will likely turn more hawkish with upgrades in both growth and inflation outlooks.

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RBNZ to Hold Monetary Policy Unchanged. Focus on the Quarterly MPS

The RBNZ will likely leave the OCR at 2.5%, for the 11th month, at the March meeting. Therefore, the market will focus on the Monetary Policy Statement as well as how the central bank describe economic outlook. On the whole, we expect the RBNZ will deliver a neutral tone, if not slightly more dovish than January's, on the outlook as economic data released in recent weeks were rather mixed. The post- meeting statement should retain the reference that 'we would expect to begin removing policy stimulus around the middle of 2010'.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 120.90

Although euro rebounded after falling to 121.46 yesterday, above resistance at 123.90 is needed to revive our bullish count that wave v has ended at 119.66 earlier and bring retracement of recent decline to 125.00 and then 125.24, otherwise, further consolidation would take place and another retreat to 121.46 cannot be ruled out but support at 120.30 should remain intact, bring strong rebound later this week

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9035

As aussie has maintained a firm undertone after breaking resistance at 0.9134, suggesting recent rise from 0.8578 is still in progress and further gain to indicated resistance at 0.9175 (previous support) would be seen, above would extend gain to 0.9200 and then towards 0.9294 (100% projection of wave i)

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 89.62; (P) 89.97; (R1) 90.32; More.

USD/JPY rebounded strongly after drawing support from 4 hours 55 EMA but it's still limited below 90.68 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. However, another rise would be mildly in favor as long as 89.19 minor support holds. Above 90.68 will bring rise resumption towards near term falling trend line (now at 91.48). On the downside, note that further break of 89.19 will argue that rebound from 88.13 is over and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this support instead.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 63.91 63.22 +69 +1.08%
AUDJPY 82.85 82.21 +64 +0.77%
GBPAUD 1.6295 1.6405 -110 -0.68%
NZDUSD 0.7067 0.7027 +40 +0.57%
CHFJPY 84.14 83.67 +47 +0.56%

Last Updated: Mar 10, 13:40 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 10, 13:40 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Mar 0.20% -- -2.60%
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Feb -1.50% -1.40% -2.10%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Jan -3.70% -3.80% 20.10%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders Y/Y Jan -1.10% -0.60% -1.50%
7:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Jan 8B 14.5B 13.5B 13.4B
7:00 EUR German CPI M/M Feb F 0.40% 0.20% 0.20%
7:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Feb F 0.60% 0.40% 0.40%
9:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jan -0.40% 0.30% 0.50%
9:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jan -1.50% -0.80% -3.60% -3.70%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jan -0.90% 0.20% 0.90%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jan 0.20% 1.40% -1.90%
15:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Jan 0.20% -0.80%
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.1M 4.1M
19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Feb -$202.0B -$42.6B
20:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50%
-- GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Feb -- 0.40%
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