Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-30-10

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Streling Lifted by GDP Revision, Euro Lost Steam

Sterling rises strongly today, boosted by upward revision in Q4 GDP as well as stronger than expected house price data. Meanwhile, Euro's recovery lost steam as the day goes, dragged down by Greece seven-year notes which fell on the first day of trading. Dollar remains soft, in particular against commodity currencies and more selling could be seen as fresh round of selling is found in USD/CAD in early US session. Crude oil and gold are steady around 82 and 1100 respectively which help stabilize the greenback. Data released from US saw S&P case shiller 20 city hour price dropped -0.7% yoy in January. Conference Board consumer confidence rose to 52.5 in March.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 123.90

Despite intra-day rise to 125.47, as the single currency has retreated, suggesting a temporary top has been formed and correction to 124.11 (yesterday's low) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 123.90/95 (approx. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 121.41 to 125.47) and bring another rally later. Above said resistance would extend recent upmove in wave iii for headway towards 126.00 first.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9120

Aussie's breach of indicated resistance at 0.9199 signals the wave 2 correction from 0.9253 has indeed ended at 0.9001 earlier and bullishness remains for a retest of this level, break there would confirm wave 3 is underway towards resistance at 0.9331first.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4913; (P) 1.4965; (R1) 1.5040; More

GBP/USD rises further to as high as 1.5058 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for further rally. As discussed before, rise from 1.4798 is treated as the third leg of consolidation from 1.4783 is could extend further to test 1.5381 resistance However, , upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5422 to conclude the consolidation and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.4958 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Decisive break of 1.4783 low will confirm that whole decline from 1.6456 has resumed and should target 200% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at 1.4364.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPJPY 140.25 138.55 +170 +1.21%
EURGBP 0.8895 0.8994 -99 -1.11%
GBPCHF 1.6091 1.5919 +172 +1.07%
CADJPY 91.33 90.52 +81 +0.89%
GBPUSD 1.5111 1.4987 +124 +0.82%

Last Updated: Mar 30, 14:10 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 30, 14:10 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Feb 4.90% 4.90% 4.90%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Feb -0.50% 1.50% 1.70%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Feb P -0.90% -0.50% 2.70%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Feb P 31.30% 31.70% 18.50%
06:00 EUR German Import Price Index M/M Feb 1.00% 0.40% 1.70%
06:00 EUR German Import Price Index Y/Y Feb 2.60% 2.00% 1.40%
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Feb 1.2 -- 1.36 1.32
08:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q4 F 0.40% 0.30% 0.30%
08:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q4 F -3.30% -3.30% -3.30%
08:30 GBP Current Account (GBP) Q4 -1.7B -5.1B -4.7B -5.91B
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Feb 0.10% 0.00% 0.30% 0.40%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Feb 0.40% -1.00% 3.30% 3.40%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jan -0.70% -0.60% -3.10%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Mar 52.5 50 46
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