Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-9-10

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Rebounds as China Comments Sent Gold Down, Sterling and Euro Weak

Dollar rebounded strongly in European session as Gold was hit to as low as 1115 following comments from China. Yi Gang, director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange said that whole gold is "not a bad asset", the ability to have more investment in gold is limited by "a few factors". Yi said that return on gold in the past 30 years hasn't been great. Also, gold will unlikely be a primary investment for China's reserves. Gold extended the fall from last week's high of 1145.8 and dipped to as low as 1115.3 so far. Meanwhile, dollar index was given a boost to 80.80.

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Special Report

RBNZ to Hold Monetary Policy Unchanged. Focus on the Quarterly MPS

The RBNZ will likely leave the OCR at 2.5%, for the 11th month, at the March meeting. Therefore, the market will focus on the Monetary Policy Statement as well as how the central bank describe economic outlook. On the whole, we expect the RBNZ will deliver a neutral tone, if not slightly more dovish than January's, on the outlook as economic data released in recent weeks were rather mixed. The post- meeting statement should retain the reference that 'we would expect to begin removing policy stimulus around the middle of 2010'.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 120.90

Although euro's retreat from yesterday's high of 123.90 turned out to be stronger than expected and weakness to 120.90/00 cannot be ruled out, as we are keeping our view that wave v has ended at 119.66 earlier, downside should be limited and as long as 120.30 holds, prospect of another rally remains and above 123.00/10 would signal the retreat from 123.90 has ended, then retest of this level would be seen later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9000

As aussie retreated after faltering below yesterday's high at 0.9134, suggesting further consolidation would take place and whilst pullback to 0.9000/05 (approx. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement o 0.8800 to 0.9134) cannot be ruled out, reckon 0.8967 (50% Fibonacci retracement) would hold and bring another rally later. Above said resistance would extend gain to 0.9175 (previous support turned resistance), break there would encourage for further rise to 0.9200.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4998; (P) 1.5097; (R1) 1.5163; More

GBP/USD's break of 1.4992 minor support indicates that recovery from 1.4783 has completed at 1.5194 already, after hitting 4 hours 55 EMA. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside. Break of 1.4783 will confirm fall resumption and should target 200% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at 1.4364 next. On the upside, above 1.5194 delay the bearish case and bring more consolidations. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5422 and bring fall resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPJPY 134.24 136.03 -179 -1.33%
EURJPY 121.63 123.11 -148 -1.22%
CHFJPY 83.15 84.13 -98 -1.18%
NZDJPY 62.61 63.27 -66 -1.05%
CADJPY 87.12 87.89 -77 -0.88%

Last Updated: Mar 09, 13:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 09, 13:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Feb 2.20% -- -0.70%
0:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Feb 17% 34% 32% 31%
0:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Feb 19 -- 15
5:00 JPY Leading Index Jan P 97.1 96.9 94 94.7
6:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Feb P 217.30% -- 192.00% 189.40%
8:15 CHF CPI M/M Feb 0.10% 0.20% -0.10%
8:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Feb 0.90% 1.00% 1.00%
9:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jan -8.0B -6.9B -7.3B -7.0B
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