Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-23-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar Turned into Consolidation

Dollar pulled back overnight as stocks rebounded but the move was mild and the greenback is regaining some strength in Asia today. Chicago Fed Evans said he'd expect interest rates to hold for "the next three to four meetings, that's about six months," even though he won't be surprised if it "carried into 2011." A number of Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week including Hoenig, who dissented the language of "extended period" in the last two FOMC meetings. St Louis Fed Bullard said yesterday that the language "is putting us in a box."

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.5155

Despite falling to 1.4929 yesterday, the subsequent rebound from there suggests fall from 1.5382 has formed a temporary low there and consolidation would take place and retracement to 1.5156-57 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5382 to 1.4929 and the current level of the Kijun-Sen) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around there and bring another decline later. Break of said support would extend weakness to next chart level at 1.4873 but below there is needed to confirm early downtrend has resumed and bring eventual retest of 1.4781 low.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Hold Long Entered At 89.90

Although the greenback retreated to 89.83 yesterday, renewed buying interest emerged above support at 89.75 and has rebounded, retaining our bullishness and above minor resistance at 90.81 would signal pullback from 91.09 has ended and bring retest of this level, break there would extend rise from 88.14 towards 91.50 but as broad outlook is still consolidative, dollar shall falter well below resistance at 92.16.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3491; (P) 1.3529; (R1) 1.3595; More.

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, an intraday low is in place at 1.3462 and bias is turned neutral. Some sideway trading might be seen but upside should be limited by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3626) and bring fall resumption. Below 1.3462 will target a retest of 1.3435 low first. As discussed before, consolidations from 1.3443 should have completed at 1.3817 already, below mentioned resistance of 1.3852 (38.2% retracement of 1.4578 to 1.3443 at 1.3861). Break of 1.3435 will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443 from 1.3817 at 1.3116 next.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
USDCHF 1.0620 1.0580 +40 +0.38%
AUDUSD 0.9155 0.9182 -27 -0.29%
NZDUSD 0.7044 0.7064 -20 -0.28%
EURUSD 1.3519 1.3557 -38 -0.28%
GBPUSD 1.5064 1.5098 -34 -0.23%

Last Updated: Mar 23, 07:10 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 23, 07:10 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BoJ Meeting Minutes -- --
07:30 CHF SNB Chairman Hildebrand Speaks -- -6
09:30 GBP CPI M/M Feb 0.50% -0.20%
09:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Feb 3.10% 3.50%
09:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Feb 3.10% 3.10%
09:30 GBP RPI Feb 218.8 217.9
09:30 GBP RPI M/M Feb 0.70% 0.00%
09:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Feb 3.70% 3.70%
10:00 USD Fed's Charles Plosser Speaks -- --
11:00 GBP U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey Mar 20 23
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Feb 0.70% 0.90%
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales M/M Feb -1.00% -7.20%
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Feb 5.00M 5.05M
14:00 USD House Price Index M/M Jan -0.80% -1.60%
19:35 USD Fed's Janet Yellen Speaks -- --
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