Saturday, March 6, 2010

Action Insight Weekly Report 3-6-10

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Action Insight Weekly Report

Commodity Currencies Soared, Yen Tumbled on Risk Appetite

Risk appetite was given a boost last week on generally positive economic data, which in turn translated in to broad based reversal in the Japanese yen. DOW managed to extend recent rally to close at 10566.2, 213 pts up. Nasdaq even managed to rose to new high of 2327 before closing at 2326. Commodity currencies were impressively strong with Canadian dollar and Australian dollar broadly up against other major currencies. Crude oil rode on strength in stocks and climbed to as high as 82.07 before closing at 81.50. Dollar was mixed and remained in range against Euro even though it did rebound strongly against the Japanese yen. Current development suggested that more upside would be seen in stocks and commodities, which might give some pressure to the greenback and yen in near term.

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Special Reports

ECB Continued to Mop Up Excess Liquidity as Growth Outlook Improved

ECB's monetary decisions in March are broadly inline with expectations. The central bank left the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% while fine-tuning the funding operation frameworks. The ECB staff's forecast on 2011 GDP was modestly revised upward. Focus of the press conference was on the gradual phasing-out of our non-standard operational measures.

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BOC Kept Policy Rate at 0.25% but Delivered More Hawkish Statement

As expected, the Bank of Canada left the overnight rate target at 0.25%. Moreover, the central bank reiterated 'conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target'.

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RBA Raised Cash Rate to 4%, Resuming the Tightening Cycle

After pausing in February, the RBA resumed its tightening cycle in March by announcing to raise its cash rate by +25 bps to 4%. In the accompanying statement, the central bank stated that interest rates to most borrowers 'remain lower than average' and 'growth is likely to be close to trend and inflation close to target over the coming year, it is appropriate for interest rates to be closer to average'.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD managed to regain strength towards the end of the week and resumed recent rally by taking out 0.9084 resistance on Friday. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and stronger rally is in favor towards 100% projection of 0.8577 to 0.9070 from 0.8802 at 0.9295 next. On the downside, below 0.8977 will turn intraday bias neutral again. But after all, break of 0.8802 support is needed to indicate that rise from 0.8577 is finished. Otherwise, another rise would still be expected.

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Weekly Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
CADJPY 87.69 84.52 +317 +3.62%
AUDJPY 81.95 79.62 +233 +2.84%
GBPCAD 1.5579 1.6017 -438 -2.81%
EURCAD 1.4023 1.4327 -304 -2.17%
USDCAD 1.0294 1.0516 -222 -2.16%

Currency Heat Map Weekly View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
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EUR
JPY
GBP
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The Week in Review and Preview

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