Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-17-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar and Yen Broadly Lower after Dovish FOMC, BoJ QE Expansion

Dollar and yen are broadly lower as risk appetite is further boosted by a dovish FOMC statement as well as expansion of quantitative easing from Bank of Japan. S&P 500 made fresh 52 week high at 1160.28 before closing up nearly 9 pts at 1159.46. Japan Nikkei 225 also rose 1.17% to close at 10846.98. Crude oil staged strong rebound overnight and is now back trading above 82 level while gold also recovered back to above 1126.9. Dollar index dipped further to as low as 79.62 and the greenback is soft against most major currencies.

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Special Reports

FOMC Retained The 'Extended Period' Language. Hoeing The Only Dissenter

As we and the market anticipated, the FOMC left its policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and retained the pledge to keep interest rates at current low level for an 'extended period'. Economic assessment changed little from January despite modest improvement from the job market. We believe employment situation remains the core factor for the Fed to consider taking away the 'extended period' language.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.3680

Despite early retreat to 1.3639, as the single currency staged a strong rebound from there partly due to risk appetite, suggesting the rise from 1.3433 low is still in progress and break of resistance at 1.3796 would bring stronger retracement of recent decline to resistance at 1.3840/51 and possibly towards 1.3905 (100% projection of 1.3530 to 1.3796 measuring from 1.3639 as well as 1.236 times projection of 1.3433 to 1.3736 measuring from 1.3530) which is likely to hold from here due to near term overbought condition.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 90.20

As the greenback has rebounded after finding renewed buying interest above yesterday's low at 89.97, suggesting the pullback from 91.09 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen, break of said support would signal the rise from 88.14 has resumed and extend gain towards 91.79 (61.8% projection of 88.14-91.09 measuring from 89.97), however, reckon resistance at 92.16 would hold from here and risk from there is seen for a retreat later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0114; (P) 1.0158; (R1) 1.0183; More.

USD/CAD's fall resumed after brief consolidations and reach as low as 1.0130 so ar today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment and current decline is expected to continue towards 161.8% projection of 1.0779 to 1.0369 from 1.0679 at 1.0016 next, which is close to parity. On the upside, above 1.0231 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But after all, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0369 support turned resistance holds.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 64.52 64.09 +43 +0.67%
EURJPY 124.94 124.30 +64 +0.51%
CHFJPY 85.99 85.60 +39 +0.45%
AUDJPY 83.27 82.93 +34 +0.41%
CADJPY 89.39 89.04 +35 +0.39%

Last Updated: Mar 17, 07:05 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 17, 07:05 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Jan 0.20% -- 0.50% 0.60%
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jan 2.90% 1.30% -0.90%
3:49 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
9:30 GBP BoE Meeting Minutes 0--0--9 0--0--9
9:30 GBP Claimant Count Change Feb 6.0K 23.5K
9:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Feb 5.00% 5.00%
9:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jan 7.90% 7.80%
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Jan 0.60% 0.70%
12:30 USD PPI M/M Feb -0.20% 1.40%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Feb 5.10% 4.60%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Feb 0.10% 0.30%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Feb 1.00% 1.00%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.6M 1.4M
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