Monday, March 8, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-9-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Yen Recovers on Repatriation, Yuan Speculation, Soft Stocks

Japanese yen recovers today as markets are expecting Japanese company to repatriate as much as JPY 1.5% profits in March for fiscal year end. Also, PBoC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said that sooner or later, China will exit from special exchange rate mechanism implemented during the global financial crisis, i.e. a de-facto peg to US dollar. Yi Gang, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that "China’s relatively high interest rates and some yuan appreciation expectations may attract some cross-border arbitrage capital," and that could give some pressure to yuan for appreciation. Stocks in Asian are quietly trading in tight range today.

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Special Report

RBNZ to Hold Monetary Policy Unchanged. Focus on the Quarterly MPS

The RBNZ will likely leave the OCR at 2.5%, for the 11th month, at the March meeting. Therefore, the market will focus on the Monetary Policy Statement as well as how the central bank describe economic outlook. On the whole, we expect the RBNZ will deliver a neutral tone, if not slightly more dovish than January's, on the outlook as economic data released in recent weeks were rather mixed. The post- meeting statement should retain the reference that 'we would expect to begin removing policy stimulus around the middle of 2010'.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 89.15

The greenback retreated again as suggested in our previous update and we are keeping our view that further consolidation below 90.69 would take place, as price already broke below the Tenkan-Sen, retracement towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 89.41) is likely but renewed buying interest should emerge around 89.11 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 88.14 to 90.69) and bring rebound later. Above the Tenkan-Sen and Ichimoku cloud top (now at 90.28 and 90.31 respectively) would bring retest of yesterdays high at 90.69, break there would extend the rise from 88.14 to 91.00 and possibly towards 91.40/50 later this week.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.3530

Despite yesterday's rise to 1.3705, the retreat from there suggests further choppy trading within 1.3530-1.3736 range would take place and weakness to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.3551) is likely, however, reckon said lower level would limit downside and bring another rebound later. Above resistance at 1.3705 would bring test of indicated upper range at 1.3736, break there would signal the rise from 1.3433 low has resumed and bring stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.3789 and later towards resistance at 1.3840/51.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.57; (P) 135.81; (R1) 137.88; More

GBP/JPY's break of 135.18 minor support suggests that recovery from 132.13 might have completed at 137.33 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for retesting 132.13 low first. Break will confirm fall resumption to 61.8% projection of 143.59 to 132.13 from 137.33 at 130.24 next. On the upside, above 137.33 will delay the bearish case and bring more recovery. But upside should be limited by 139.21 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 150.68 to 132.13 at 139.21, 61.8% retracement of 143.59 to 132.13 at 139.21) and bring fall resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPJPY 134.79 136.03 -124 -0.92%
NZDJPY 62.81 63.27 -46 -0.73%
EURJPY 122.33 123.11 -78 -0.64%
CHFJPY 83.60 84.13 -53 -0.63%
GBPAUD 1.6480 1.6567 -87 -0.53%

Last Updated: Mar 09, 07:10 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 09, 07:10 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Feb 2.20% -- -0.70%
0:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Feb 17% 34% 32% 31%
0:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Feb 19 -- 15
5:00 JPY Leading Index Jan P 97.1 96.9 94 94.7
6:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Feb P -- 189.40%
8:15 CHF CPI M/M Feb 0.20% -0.10%
8:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Feb 1.00% 1.00%
9:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jan -6.9B -7.3B
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