Monday, March 15, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-15-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Sterling Hit by Rating Warning, Swiss France Surges

Dollar and yen are mildly higher today as Moody's said risks are growing to the four largest AAA rated countries, including UK, US, France and Germany and they have moved "substantially" close to losing the top-notch rating. There are also some uncertainty on Euro as some European finance ministers ruled out aid for Greece for the moment. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said Greece "does not need help." German Finance ministers echoed the comment and said there's no need to present an aid plan at the moment.

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Special Reports

Will the Fed Retain the 'Extended Period' Wordings?

At the March FOMC meeting, the Fed will leave the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25%. With economic development being largely consistent with expectations since January's meeting, the central bank will retain the stance to keep interest rates low for an extended period of time.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 123.00

Despite intra-day brief rise above Friday's high at 125.21 to 125.36, lack of follow through buying and the retreat from there suggest consolidation would take place and retracement to 123.00/10 cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge there and bring another rally later. Above said resistance would confirm wave v has ended at 119.66 and would extend the rise from there to 126.00, then towards 126.95/00.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9035

As aussie has retreated after intra-day marginal rise to 0.9209 (Friday's high was 0.9195), suggesting minor top is formed and consolidation below there would take place, bring retracement to 0.9053/56 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8800 to 0.9209 and last week's low), however, renewed buying interest should emerge well above 0.9000 and bring another upmove later. Above said resistance would extend the rise from 0.8567 to 0.9240/50 and then towards 0.9294 (100% projection of wave i) but overbought condition would limit upside to 0.9331.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5079; (P) 1.5148; (R1) 1.5271; More

GBP/USD's break of 1.5024 minor support suggests that consolidation from 1.4783 might have completed at 1.5216 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for retesting 1.4783 first. Break will confirm that whole fall from 1.6456 is resuming for next target of 200% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at 1.4364. On the upside, above 1.5216 will delay the bearish case again and bring more consolidations first. But after all, we'd expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5422 and bring fall resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPCAD 1.5345 1.5492 -147 -0.96%
GBPUSD 1.5062 1.5202 -140 -0.93%
GBPJPY 136.59 137.66 -107 -0.78%
GBPCHF 1.5958 1.6078 -120 -0.75%
GBPAUD 1.6497 1.6610 -113 -0.68%

Last Updated: Mar 15, 13:20 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 15, 13:20 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Mar 0.10% -- 3.20%
00:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices Y/Y Mar 5.30% -- 6.10%
05:00 JPY Households Confidence Feb 39.8 40 39
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Feb 40 -- 39.4
08:15 CHF Combined PPI M/M Feb -0.30% 0.10% 0.30%
08:15 CHF Combined PPI Y/Y Feb -1.00% -0.60% -1.30%
12:30 CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M Jan 0.00% 0.00% 2.60%
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Mar 22.86 20 24.91
13:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Jan 19.1B $50.3B? $63.3B
13:15 USD Industrial Production Feb 0.1% 0.00% 0.90%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Feb 72.6% 72.60% 72.60%
17:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Mar 17 17
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