Thursday, March 25, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-25-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar Firm as Focus Turns to EU Summit and Bernanke Testimony

Dollar remains broadly firm today and breaches 1.33 level against Euro while dollar yen continues to press 92.14 resistance. Fed's Vice Chairman Kohn said that he's confident that Fed "can and will tighten policy well in advance of any threat to price stability" while he also expects a "gradual recovery" for the U.S. economy following fourth- quarter growth "importantly driven by inventory corrections." Nevertheless, San Francisco Fed Yellen, who might take the Vice Chairman Role after Kohn retires in June, said it's not time to tightening monetary policy yet. Yellen believes the current accommodative policy is appropriate as "the economy is operating well below its potential and inflation is subdued." Fed Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee today in Washington on the strategy for withdrawing stimulus and will receive much focus from the markets.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.3400

Euro's intra-day fall to 1.3283 signals recent selloff is still in progress and further weakness to 1.3246 (50% projection of 1.4580 to 1.3433 measuring from 1.3819) would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.3214 (100% projection of 1.3819-1.3463 measuring from 1.3570) but reckon 1.3150/60 would hold from here, bring a minor correction probably tomorrow.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 91.60

Yesterday's rally after breaking resistance at 91.09 signals early correction from 93.78 has ended at 88.14 earlier and although dollar retreated after hitting a high of 92.42 yesterday, renewed buying interest should emerge well above the Tenkan-Sen (now at 91.37) and bring another upmove later. Above said resistance would extend gain towards next chart resistance at 93.31 but it is necessary to see a breach of this level to confirm early upmove from 84.82 has finally resumed and headways towards chart resistance at 93.78 would follow.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3248; (P) 1.3377; (R1) 1.3442; More.

EUR/USD drops further to as low as 1.3283 today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current fall from 1.3817 is part of the whole medium term decline from 1.5143 and should now target 61.8% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443 from 1.3817 at 1.3116 next. On the upside, above 1.3377 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited well below 1.3817 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
USDCAD 1.0227 1.0265 -38 -0.37%
EURCAD 1.3615 1.3663 -48 -0.35%
EURAUD 1.4621 1.4670 -49 -0.34%
AUDUSD 0.9103 0.9073 +30 +0.33%
EURJPY 122.53 122.88 -35 -0.29%

Last Updated: Mar 25, 06:55 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 25, 06:55 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q4 0.80% 0.80% 0.20% 0.30%
21:45 NZD GDP Y/Y Q4 0.40% 0.40% -1.30%
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Feb -1.30% -1.10% -1.00% -1.20%
00:00 USD Fed's Donald Kohn Speaks -- --
00:30 AUD RBA Semi-Annnual Financial Stability Review -- --
07:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Apr 3.1 3.2
09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Feb -0.10% 0.10%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.80% -1.80%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 450K 457K
13:10 USD Fed's Sandra Pianalto Speaks -- --
14:00 USD Fed's Bernanke Testifies -- --
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 10B -11B
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