Thursday, March 18, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-18-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Euro Remains Soft on Greece Uncertainty

Euro remains pressured by the uncertain on who will provide financial aids to Greece to resolve its debt problems. There are rumors that the situation has become increasingly pessimistic for concrete assistance at next EU summit on March 25 and Greece may eventually need to seek IMF assistance during Easter. Greece Prime Minister Papandreou set a one-week deadline for EU to craft the mechanism for the financial aid and said he may turn to IMF otherwise. German Chancellor Merkel's chief finance spokesman Meister said yesterday that "nobody apart from the IMF" has the instruments to push for Greece to restore its "capital-markets access" and attempting a Greek rescue without the IMF "would be a very daring experiment." The comments signaled a rift with Merkel and European leaders ECB Trichet, Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker and France's Sarkozy. Also, it's believed there are now at least three other Eurozone nations that are open to the idea of calling the IMF if needed, including Finland, the Netherlands and Italy.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5445 O.C.O. Buy at 1.5140

Cable's intra-day sideways trading is expected to continue and although retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5180) cannot be ruled out, reckon 1.5125/30 (approx. 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4873 to 1.5382) would attract renewed buying interest and bring another rally later. Above resistance at 1.5382 (yesterday's high) would bring stronger retracement of recent decline towards 1.5421-22 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5816 to 1.4781 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6459 to 1.4781) but loss of near term upward momentum would cap price below 1.5500, bring retreat later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Hold long entered at 90.20

Despite intra-day fall to 89.75, as dollar has rebounded after holding above support at 89.63, retaining our near term bullishness and as long as this intra-day support holds, gain to minor resistance at 90.72/74 is seen and break there would signal pullback from 91.09 is over, bring resumption of the rise from 88.14 to 91.70/80, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, dollar shall falter well below resistance at 92.16 and further choppy trading would follow.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3703; (P) 1.3760; (R1) 1.3794; More.

EUR/USD drops to as low as 1.3647 today and remains soft. As noted before, break of 1.3641 minor support will indicate that consolidations from 1.3443 has completed at 1.3817 already. In such case, intraday bias will be flipped to the downside for retesting 1.3435 low. Break will confirm that whole fall from 1.5143 high has resumed. On the upside, in case of another rise, we'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 1.3852 (38.2% retracement of 1.4578 to 1.3443 at 1.3861) and bring down trend resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 64.78 64.45 +33 +0.51%
AUDNZD 1.2865 1.2926 -61 -0.47%
NZDUSD 0.7170 0.7140 +30 +0.42%
EURCAD 1.3819 1.3876 -57 -0.41%
EURUSD 1.3689 1.3737 -48 -0.35%

Last Updated: Mar 18, 14:15 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 18, 14:15 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q1 4.3 15.3 13.2
05:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report -- --
07:15 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Feb 1.29B 2.20B 2.42B
08:15 CHF Industrial Production Q/Q Q4 6.40% 5.10% 3.40% 3.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jan -8.1B 2.9B 1.9B
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Feb 12.4B 14.6B 4.3B 0.0B
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Feb P 0.20% 0.70% 0.40% 0.20%
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Feb P 3.60% 4.30% 4.90% 4.70%
10:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) Mar 53.8 -- 52.5
10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jan -2.3B 5.5B 7.0B 4.3B
11:00 GBP U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Mar -37 -33 -36
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jan 11.83B 7.75B 11.231B
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 457K 450K 462K
12:30 USD CPI M/M Feb 0.00% 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Feb 2.10% 2.30% 2.60%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Feb 0.10% 0.10% -0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Feb 1.30% 1.40% 1.60%
12:30 USD Current Account Q4 -115.6B -$119.8B -$108.0B
14:00 USD Philadelphia Fed. Mar 18.9 17.6 17.6
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Feb 0.10% 0.10% 0.30%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -37B -111B
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