Thursday, March 4, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-4-10

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Yen Reversed as 3-Month Libor Drops Below Dollar

Yen failed to ride on earlier strength and weakens sharply in early US session as three month Lib or dropped below dollar for the first time since August. LIBOR for three month yen loans dropped to 0.251% comparing 0.252% for dollar loans. The greenback can now declare that it's not the most attractively priced currency for carry trades any more. On the other hand, Euro is slightly softer as ECB president Trichet said that will continue to provide euro-zone banks with as much liquidity as they need through its main refinancing operations.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 119.10

Just as suggested in our previous update that price remained confined within near term range of 119.66-121.90 and as long as said upper range holds, recent decline may extend marginally in wave v and break of said support would extend weakness to 119.10 (approx. 50% projection of 125.24-119.66 measuring from 121.90) but reckon 118.45 (61.8% projection) should hold, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.8920

Despite yesterday's brief breach of indicated resistance at 0.9072, lack of upside follow through and the retreat from 0.9086 suggest consolidation would take place , however, downside should be limited to 0.8905/10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8800 to 0.9086) and bring another upmove in wave iii. Break of said resistance would extend gain towards 0.9175 (previous support turned resistance) later today or tomorrow.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 88.19; (P) 88.59; (R1) 88.86; More.

USD/JPY's strong recovery and break of 88.63 minor resistance suggests that an intraday low is in place at 88.13 and turns bias neutral. Nevertheless, note that as long as 89.51 resistance holds, fall from 92.14 is still expected to continue. Below 88.13 will target 87.36 support next. Break there will confirm that whole rebound form 84.81 is finished at 93.74. Also, in such case, the larger down trend is likely resuming for a new low below 84.81. However, note that strong break of 89.51 resistance will suggest that a short term bottom is at least formed and stronger rebound should then be seen to near term falling trend lines resistance (now at 91.69).

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
CADJPY 86.50 85.70 +80 +0.92%
GBPJPY 134.68 133.54 +114 +0.85%
USDJPY 89.08 88.46 +62 +0.70%
EURCAD 1.4055 1.4131 -76 -0.54%
AUDCAD 0.9298 0.9345 -47 -0.51%

Last Updated: Mar 04, 14:45 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 04, 14:45 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Capital Spending Q4 -17.30% -18.10% -24.80%
0:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jan -1.18B -1.57B -2.25B -2.17B
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 P 0.10% 0.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Y/Y Q4 P -2.10% -2.10%
12:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
12:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target (GBP) 200B 200B
12:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference -- --
13:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Jan 1.20% 2.40%
13:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q4 F 6.20% 6.20%
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q4 F -4.40% -4.40%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 475K 496K
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI Feb 56 50.8
15:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Jan 1.50% 1.00%
15:00 USD Factory Orders Jan 1.20% 1.00%
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