Sunday, March 7, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-8-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Yen and Dollar Remain Soft as Asian Stocks Rally

Yen, and to a lesser extent dollar remain soft as Asian stocks open the week high with Nikkei up sharply by over 2%. Canadian dollar and Australian dollar are so far the biggest winner this month with CAD/JPY up nearly 4% while AUD/JPY up 3.3% so far. The were talks in the market that buying in Canadian dollar overtook Australian dollar on safety of the country's banking system as well as its tie to US economic recovery. Also, the pace of Aussie's rally might be limited by China's tightening measures going forward. Options demand for AUD/CAD short reached highest month in almost a year. Technically, we've mentioned that we're near term bearish in AUD/CAD and prefer Loonie over Aussie. However, the tricky point is on whether USD/CAD would hold on to 1.0205/0223 support zone. We'll probably clear the picture after job reports from Australia and Canada later this week.

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Candlesticks & Ichimioku Analysis

Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Buy At 1.5035

Although cable briefly slipped to 1.4993 last Friday on dollar's rebound after the release of better-than-expected U.S. NFP data, sterling found good support there and rebounded due to active cross-buying in sterling versus Japanese yen on risk appetite, suggesting the rise from 1.4781 low is still in progress and mild upside bias is seen for retracement of recent decline towards the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.5239), however, reckon 1.5272 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5575 to 1.4781) should attract renewed selling interest and bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.3570

Although the single currency dropped briefly to 1.3530 last Friday due to dollar's broad-based strength after the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. job data, lack of follow through selling and the subsequent rebound from there on cross-buying versus Japanese yen due to risk appetite suggests another leg of corrective upmove from recent low at 1.3433 has commenced and test of resistance at 1.3736 is likely. However, break there is needed to add credence to this view and bring retracement of recent decline to 1.3789 and later towards resistance at 1.3840/51.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9009; (P) 0.9051; (R1) 0.9117; More

AUDUSD rises further to as high as 0.9111 today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally from 0.8577 is still expected to continue towards 100% projection of 0.8577 to 0.9070 from 0.8802 at 0.9295 next. on the downside, below 0.8977 support will indicate that a short term top is in place and bring consolidation. But after all, break of 0.8802 support is needed to indicate that rise from 0.8577 is finished. Otherwise, another rise would still be expected.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 63.37 62.92 +45 +0.71%
CHFJPY 84.61 84.04 +57 +0.67%
EURJPY 123.78 122.95 +83 +0.67%
AUDJPY 82.42 81.94 +48 +0.58%
NZDUSD 0.7009 0.6969 +40 +0.57%

Last Updated: Mar 08, 07:25 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 08, 07:25 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Current Account Jan 1.71T 1.25T 1.10T 1.30T
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Feb 2.70% 2.80% 2.90%
5:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Feb 42.1 40.1 38.8
6:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Feb 4.10% 4.10% 4.10%
8:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Jan 2.30% 4.70%
9:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Mar -8.8 -8.2
11:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Jan 1.00% -2.60%
13:15 CAD Housing Starts Feb 186.0K 186.3K
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