Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-3-10

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Markets Still in Consolidation after Greece's Austerity Plan and US ADP

Markets remain in consolidation mode in early US session. US ADP employment report showed -20k contraction in the private sector in February, slightly worse than expectation of -10k but not too far. January's figure was revised down from -22k to -60k though. Challenger report showed -77.4% yoy drop in planned layoff in February. Dollar is a bit softer against major currencies but there isn't much momentum for deeper fall. Focus will turn to ISM non-manufacturing index and Fed's Beige Book.

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Special Reports

ECB to Drain Liquidity Gradually

The upcoming ECB meeting is the focus of the week as the President Trichet has mentioned several times that more detailed money market measures will be announced at the March meeting. Given the negative impacts of Greece's sovereign crisis and sluggish economic data released since the previous meeting, we believe the measures will not be drastic and the policy rate will stay unchanged at 1%. ECB staff will also publish a new set of economic forecasts. Again, we expect only modest changes from previous projections.

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BOE to Stay Sidelined as Inflation Remains Strong in the Near-term

The BOE is expected to continue its 'wait-and-see' stance in monetary policy. At Thursday's meeting, the central bank should unanimously vote for keeping the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5% and continuing with its program of asset purchases totaling 200B pound. The Committee will continue to monitor the appropriate scale of the asset purchase program and further purchases would be made should the outlook warrant them.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 119.10

As euro has rebounded after holding above support at 119.66, suggesting further consolidation would take place and as long as 121.90 holds, recent decline may extend marginally in wave v and break of said support would extend weakness to 119.10 (approx. 50% projection of 125.24-119.66 measuring from 121.90) but reckon 118.45 (61.8% projection) should hold, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.8920

As aussie has eased after intra-day rise to 0.9065, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen, however, as we are keeping a view that the rise from 0.8800 signals wave ii correction has ended there, bullishness remains for test of 0.9072 resistance, above there would add credence to this view and indicate the wave iii is under way for gain towards 0.9175 (previous support turned resistance) later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 88.47; (P) 88.92; (R1) 89.29; More.

With 89.47 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside and further decline is still expected towards 87.36 support. Break there will confirm that whole rebound form 84.81 is finished at 93.74. Also, in such case, the larger down trend is likely resuming for a new low below 84.81. On the upside, above 89.47 minor resistance, however, will indicate that a short term bottom might be formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Stronger rebound should be seen instead.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 61.33 61.79 -46 -0.75%
AUDNZD 1.3062 1.2975 +87 +0.67%
NZDUSD 0.6911 0.6956 -45 -0.65%
GBPAUD 1.6668 1.6565 +103 +0.62%
GBPUSD 1.5058 1.4970 +88 +0.58%

Last Updated: Mar 03, 13:45 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 03, 13:45 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence Feb 80 71 73 74
00:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Feb 1.70% -- 2.30%
00:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q4 0.90% 0.90% 0.20% 0.30%
00:30 AUD GDP Y/Y Q4 2.70% 2.40% 0.60%
07:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Jan 0.00% -0.60% 0.90% 0.90%
07:00 EUR German Retail Sales Y/Y Jan -3.40% -1.10% -2.50% -1.80%
08:55 EUR German PMI Services Feb F 51.9 51.7 51.7
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Feb F 51.8 52 52
09:30 GBP U.K. PMI Services Feb 58.4 55 54.5
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jan -0.30% -0.30% 0.00% 0.50%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Jan -1.30% -1.60% -1.60% -0.50%
12:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Feb -77.40% -- -70.40%
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change Feb -20K -10K -22K -60K
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Feb 51 50.5
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.4M 3.0M
19:00 USD Fed Beige Book -- --
Suggested Readings

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