Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-16-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Euro Sharply Lower ahead of EU FM Summit Outcome, FOMC in Focus

Euro was sharply lower overnight as it's not likely to have a detailed rescue package for Greece as the two-day summit of Euro Zone finance ministers conclude. EU FMs are expected to laid the ground work on a mechanism that would allow them to help Greece financially if needed. As Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said yesterday, technical arrangements would be clarified to allow EU members to take coordinated actions. The aid would would probably come through governments pooling funds to extend direct loans to Greece but the trigger for the lending will probably be left open for the moment. While Euro recovers mildly against dollar, it's still under much pressure against Swiss Franc and yen. EUR/CHF dropped to 17 month low of 1.4506 yesterday and more downside would likely be seen going forward. markets will also look into German ZEW economic sentiments today which is expected to fall for the sixth month to 43.5 in March.

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Special Reports

Will the Fed Retain the 'Extended Period' Wordings?

At the March FOMC meeting, the Fed will leave the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25%. With economic development being largely consistent with expectations since January's meeting, the central bank will retain the stance to keep interest rates low for an extended period of time.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.5150

Yesterday's sharp retreat signals top has been formed at 1.5218 and consolidation with downside bias is seen for further weakness to 1.5000 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4781 to 1.5218) and then towards 1.4948 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), however, only a firm breach below latter level would signal the entire correction from 1.4781 is over and sterling may extend decline towards 1.4873 eventually.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 89.45

Dollar slipped after meeting renewed selling at 90.97 yesterday and suggests the rise from 88.14 has formed a temporary top at 91.09 last Friday and mild downside bias is seen for correction to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 89.72), however, renewed buying interest should emerge around the flat ground Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 89.41) and reckon 89.27 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 88.14 to 91.09) would hold, bring another rally later. Above 90.97 would signal the rise from 88.14 has resumed and bring retest of 91.09, then 91.30/40, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 91.70/80 and the greenback should falter well below resistance at 92.16 and bring correction later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.03; (P) 124.08; (R1) 124.86; More.

As discussed before, EUR/JPY's choppy recovery from 119.64 is treated as a correction in the larger fall only and is expected to be limited by 125.22 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 134.36 to 119.64 at 125.26). Current development, with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, suggests that an intraday top is already in place at 125.13 and is in line with our expectation. Break of 123.01 will further affirm our view and flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 119.64. Break there will confirm down trend resumption for 112.10 low. On the upside, however, decisive break of 125.22/26 will invalidate our view and indicate that stronger rebound is underway for 61.8% retracement of 134.36 to 119.64 at 128.73 next.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPJPY 135.69 136.26 -57 -0.42%
USDJPY 90.15 90.52 -37 -0.41%
NZDUSD 0.7042 0.7014 +28 +0.40%
EURJPY 123.34 123.80 -46 -0.37%
CADJPY 88.49 88.79 -30 -0.34%

Last Updated: Mar 16, 07:10 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 16, 07:10 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes -- --
09:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Jan 3.50% 2.90%
10:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Mar 43.5 45.1
10:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) Mar -52 -54.8
10:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Mar 38.5 40.2
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Feb 0.30% -0.80%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Feb 0.90% 0.90%
12:30 CAD Labor Productivity Q/Q Q4 0.70% -0.20%
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jan 0.70% 1.60%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Feb -0.20% 1.40%
12:30 USD Housing Starts Feb 570K 591K
12:30 USD Building Permits Feb 610K 621K
18:15 USD FOMC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
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