Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-24-10

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Strengthens as Euro Punched by Portugal Downgrade

Dollar rides on the misfortune of Euro rises sharply across the board today. Euro has already been under much press on news that EU will seek IMF to play the central role in providing financial aids to Greece. Additional pressure is seen from news that Portugal's debt was downgraded by Fitch to AA- with a "negative" outlook. Investors are deeply concerned with fiscal problem in southern European countries and the prospects for respective economies. While dollar rises sharply against Euro, it also manages to strength against other major currencies.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 120.80

Although intra-day brief fall to 121.46 suggests downside risk remains for another test of 121.05 support (this week's low), as broad outlook is still consolidative, downside should be limited to 120.50/60 and bring another rebound later. Above this week's high at 122.62 would suggest low has been formed and bring stronger rebound to 123.30/40, then 123.75/80.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Sell At 0.9190

Despite yesterday's marginal rise to 0.9199, as aussie retreated again from there in tandem with euro, suggesting further consolidation below recent high at 0.9253 would take place with mild downside bias for another fall to 0.9085, break there would bring stronger retracement of recent upmove in minor wave 2 of iii towards 0.9027 (38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave 1 rise from 0.8800 to 0.9253) but reckon 0.8973 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold and bring another rally later in wave 3 of iii early next month.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0533; (P) 1.0586; (R1) 1.0625; More.

USD/CHF's strong break of 1.0660 minor resistance indicates that rise from 1.0506 has resumed and flips intraday back to the upside for 1.0809 resistance next. Break there will suggest that whole whole medium term rise from 0.9916 is resuming and should target 61.8% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0506 at 1.0979 next. On the downside, below 1.0656 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 1.0546 support and bring rally resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
USDJPY 91.92 90.39 +153 +1.66%
USDCHF 1.0704 1.0573 +131 +1.22%
EURUSD 1.3343 1.3498 -155 -1.16%
CADJPY 89.78 88.95 +83 +0.92%
AUDUSD 0.9104 0.9187 -83 -0.91%

Last Updated: Mar 24, 13:35 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 24, 13:35 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Current Account Balance Q4 -3.57B -1.64B -1.41B -1.59B
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Feb 0.47T 0.41T 0.73T 0.65T
08:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Mar A 59.6 56.8 57.2
08:30 EUR German PMI Services Mar A 54.7 52 51.9
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Mar A 53.7 52 51.8
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Mar A 56.3 54 54.2
09:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Mar 98.1 95.8 95.2
09:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Mar 101.9 100.9 100.9
09:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Mar 94.4 91 89.8
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders s.a. M/M Jan -2.00% 2.00% 0.80%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders Y/Y Jan 7.00% 14.40% 9.50%
12:30 GBP U.K. 2011 Budget Report -- --
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Feb 0.50% 0.60% 3.00%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Feb 0.90% 0.50% -0.60%
14:00 USD New Home Sales M/M Feb 1.90% -11.20%
14:00 USD New Home Sales Feb 315K 309K
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.3M 1.0M
14:45 USD Fed Thomas Hoenig Speaks -- --
17:05 CAD BoC Governor Carney Speaks -- --
Suggested Readings

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