Thursday, March 11, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-12-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Yen Weakens on BoJ Speculation, Dollar Dips

Japanese yen weakens broadly today as speculations of imminent easing in BoJ policy continues to heat up. BoJ will hold a two-day policy meeting next week and the bank will make a decision on whether to expand the JPY 10T fund providing loans to bank to fight against deflation. In addition, Japan Finance Minister Naoto Kan said that if markets moves too "abruptly", the government will have the option of currency intervention as an "option". Yen would likely remain soft for a while till next week's BoJ announcement on March 17.

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Special Report

SNB Revised Up Growth and Inflation Forecasts While Leaving Monetary Policy Unchanged

As expected, the SNB left the 3-month LIBOR target range unchanged at 0.00-0.75% and intended to keep the lower part of the target range at around 0.25%. The SNB also reiterated the stance to act 'decisively to prevent an excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro'. In light of recent economic recovery, the central bank also revised up its real GDP growth and inflation forecasts.

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Commodity Currencies Update: CAD to Outperform

We have revised up our forecasts on Canadian dollar given recent strong economic outlook and upbeat BOC statements. We believe CAD should strengthen against both AUD and NZD as domestic recovery gains traction. When the BOC begins it tightening cycle, probably at the end of 2Q10, the pace would be swift if accompanied with positive indicators. We have also modestly raised Australian dollar's outlook for 2Q10 and 3Q10 as the country's growth has been robust and undoubtedly the strongest among developed economies. For New Zealand dollar, we currently leave our forecasts unchanged, given mixed economic data released in recent month, but will closely monitor changes in news flows.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.3590

Although the intra-day breach of resistance at 1.3705 suggests a possible upside break of recent range of 1.3530-1.3736, break of said upper range is needed to confirm and extend the rise from 1.3433 low for a stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.3789 and later towards resistance at 1.3840/51.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 89.65

Although dollar rebounded after yesterday's retreat from 90.83 to 90.20, above said resistance is needed to signal the rise from 88.14 has resumed and extend gain to 91.30/40, however, reckon resistance at 92.16 would hold from here, otherwise, further consolidation would take place and below the Kijun-Sen (now at 90.23) would bring retracement towards 89.61-63 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and previous support) but renewed buying interest should emerge there and bring another rise later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0204; (P) 1.0263; (R1) 1.0297; More.

Outlook in USD/CAD remains unchanged. Further fall could still be seen in USD/CAD with 1.0366 resistance intact. But we're expecting strong support from 1.0205/0223 support zone to contain the fall and conclude the whole three wave consolidation pattern from 1.0851. Above 1.0366 will indicate that USD/CAD has likely bottomed out and strong rebound should then be seen targeting 1.0779/0851 resistance zone. However, note that decisive break of 1.0205 will invalidate our view and target parity instead.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
EURJPY 124.15 123.80 +35 +0.28%
CHFJPY 84.92 84.70 +22 +0.26%
AUDJPY 83.03 82.83 +20 +0.24%
EURGBP 0.9100 0.9081 +19 +0.21%
CADJPY 88.55 88.37 +18 +0.20%

Last Updated: Mar 12, 07:15 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 12, 07:15 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Jan 0.80% 0.40% 0.00% -0.40%
21:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/M Jan 0.30% 0.70% -1.80% -2.00%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jan F 2.70% 2.50% 2.50%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Jan F 18.50% 18.20%
7:00 EUR German Wholesale Price Index M/M Feb 0.30% 1.30%
11:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jan 0.70% -1.70%
11:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Jan -1.60% -5.00%
12:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Feb 17.5K 43.0K
12:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Feb 8.30% 8.30%
13:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Feb -0.20% 0.50%
13:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Feb 0.10% 0.60%
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Mar P 73.9 73.6
15:00 USD Business Inventories Jan 0.10% -0.20%
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