Thursday, March 18, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-18-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Euro Tumbles as EU Split on IMF Role for Greece

Euro is sold off sharply and recent developments suggest that European Union is split over who should provide the financial aids to Greece. German Chancellor Merkel's chief finance spokesman Meister said that "nobody apart from the IMF" has the instruments to push for Greece to restore its "capital-markets access" and attempting a Greek rescue without the IMF "would be a very daring experiment." The comments signaled a rift with Merkel and European leaders ECB Trichet, Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker and France's Sarkozy. Also, it's believed there are now at least three other Eurozone nations that are open to the idea of calling the IMF if needed, including Finland, the Netherlands and Italy. EUR/USD is sharply below yesterday;s high of 1.3817 and is trading at around 1.3680 region while EUR/JPY failed 125 level and is back at 123.30. EUR/CHF also extended recent down trend and dived to 1.4460 level.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Exit Long Entered At 1.3675

Current sharp retreat suggests the rise from 1.3433 has formed a temporary top at 1.3819 yesterday and downside risk is seen for correction to 1.3639 (previous support and the current level of the Ichimoku cloud top), however, only a break below the flat ground Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.3586) would indicate the aforesaid upmove is over, then further weakness towards key support at 1.3530-37 would follow.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Hold Long Entered At 90.20

Although the greenback has retreated again after meeting resistance around 90.72-74, as long as support at 89.63 holds, prospect of another rebound remains and break of said minor resistance would signal pullback from 91.09 is over and bring resumption of the rise from 88.14 to 91.70/80, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, dollar shall falter well below resistance at 92.16 and further choppy trading would follow.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.62; (P) 124.34; (R1) 124.77; More.

EUR/JPY's rebound yesterday was limited below 125.22 cluster resistance as expected (38.2% retracement of 134.36 to 119.64 at 125.26) and falls sharply today. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, choppy rise from 119.64 is treated as a correction in the larger fall only. Break of 123.01 minor support will indicate that such recovery has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 119.64. Break there will confirm down trend resumption for 112.10 low. On the upside, even in case of another recovery, we'd still expect strong resistance at 125.22 to conclude the correction and bring fall resumption. However, decisive break of 125.22/26 will invalidate our view and indicate that stronger rebound is underway for 61.8% retracement of 134.36 to 119.64 at 128.73 next.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
EURUSD 1.3682 1.3737 -55 -0.40%
EURJPY 123.56 124.05 -49 -0.40%
EURGBP 0.8932 0.8961 -29 -0.32%
USDCHF 1.0571 1.0540 +31 +0.29%
CHFJPY 85.42 85.66 -24 -0.28%

Last Updated: Mar 18, 07:10 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 18, 07:10 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q1 4.3 15.3 13.2
5:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report -- --
7:15 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Feb 2.20B 2.42B
8:15 CHF Industrial Production Q/Q Q4 5.00% 3.40%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jan 2.9B 1.9B
9:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Feb 14.0B 4.3B
9:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Feb P 0.70% 0.40%
9:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Feb P 4.30% 4.90%
10:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) Mar -- 52.5
10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jan 5.5B 7.0B
11:00 GBP U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Mar -33 -36
12:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jan 7.75B 11.231B
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 450K 462K
12:30 USD CPI M/M Feb 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Feb 2.30% 2.60%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Feb 0.10% -0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Feb 1.40% 1.60%
12:30 USD Current Account Q4 -$119.8B -$108.0B
14:00 USD Philadelphia Fed. Mar 17.6 17.6
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Feb 0.10% 0.30%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -37B -111B
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