Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 3-30-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar and Yen Broadly Lower

Dollar and yen are broadly lower on improved risk appetite as Japanese Nikkei soared to 18 month high in Asia today. Commodities are also strong with crude oil back above 82 and is set to break through recent high of 83.16. Meanwhile Gold is also trading firm above 1100 level. One important development today is that EUR/JPY has taken out an important resistance at 125.22 level which completes a head and shoulder bottom reversal pattern. The development further align yen's bearish outlook against dollar and commodity currencies and we'd expect more yen losses going forward in general.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0680

As dollar has fallen again after brief recovery, suggesting bearishness remains for weakness towards 1.0547, however, break there is needed to signal the decline from 1.0899 has resumed for retest of 1.0507 low, break there would bring stronger retracement of early upmove from 0.9910 to 1.0450/60 and then 1.0424 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0130 to 1.0899), however, reckon 1.0405 (50% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 0.9910 to 1.0899) would hold from here.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 91.70

Although dollar recovered after intra-day retreat to 92.12, above resistance at 92.96 is needed to confirm recent rise from 88.14 has resumed and extend gain towards 93.31-36 (previous chart resistance and 61.8% projection of 89.83-92.42 measuring from 91.76) but reckon resistance at 93.78 would hold on first testing and risk has increased for a correction later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.14; (P) 124.60; (R1) 125.11; More.

EUR/JPY rises further to as high as 125.45 so far today and further rise is still expected. As noted before, sustained break of 125.22 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 134.36 to 119.64 at 125.26) will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 120.69, h: 119.64, rs: 121.05) and will argue that EUR/JPY has bottomed out in medium term. In such case, further rise should be seen to 126.88 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 124.16 support will turn intraday bias neutral first and bring pull back. But another would remain in favor as long as 121.05 support holds.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPJPY 139.29 138.55 +74 +0.53%
NZDJPY 65.91 65.58 +33 +0.50%
CADJPY 90.92 90.52 +40 +0.44%
EURJPY 125.19 124.65 +54 +0.43%
AUDJPY 85.18 84.83 +35 +0.41%

Last Updated: Mar 30, 07:25 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Mar 30, 07:25 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Feb 4.90% 4.90% 4.90%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Feb -0.50% 1.50% 1.70%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Feb P -0.90% -0.50% 2.70%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Feb P 31.30% 31.70% 18.50%
06:00 EUR German Import Price Index M/M Feb 1.00% 0.40% 1.70%
06:00 EUR German Import Price Index Y/Y Feb 2.60% 2.00% 1.40%
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Feb 1.2 -- 1.36 1.32
08:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q4 F 0.30% 0.30%
08:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q4 F -3.30% -3.30%
08:30 GBP Current Account (GBP) Q4 -5.1B -4.7B
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Feb 0.00% 0.30%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Feb -1.00% 3.30%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jan -0.60% -3.10%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Mar 50 46
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