Saturday, March 13, 2010

Action Insight Weekly Report 3-13-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Weekly Report

Yen Fell on BoJ Speculation, Dollar Index at Critical Level

The Japanese yen weakened broadly last week as solid economic data from China boosted investors' optimism for recovery and risk appetite. S&P 500 broke January's high of 1150 briefly before closing 1149.99. Nikkei also managed to rise 382 pts to close at 10751. There were also additional pressure to yen from speculation that Bank of Japan will expand monetary easing in the week's meeting. Swiss franc was surprisingly strong after event risk of Swiss National Bank meeting past. Canadian dollar also surged towards the end of the week on solid employment data from US.

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Commodity Currencies Update: CAD to Outperform

We have revised up our forecasts on Canadian dollar given recent strong economic outlook and upbeat BOC statements. We believe CAD should strengthen against both AUD and NZD as domestic recovery gains traction. When the BOC begins it tightening cycle, probably at the end of 2Q10, the pace would be swift if accompanied with positive indicators. We have also modestly raised Australian dollar's outlook for 2Q10 and 3Q10 as the country's growth has been robust and undoubtedly the strongest among developed economies. For New Zealand dollar, we currently leave our forecasts unchanged, given mixed economic data released in recent month, but will closely monitor changes in news flows.

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EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF finally built up some momentum last week and dived to as low as 1.4559 after SNB meeting. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and break of 1.4557 will confirm that whole fall from 1.5880 has resumed and should target 1.4315 low next. On the upside, above 1.4630 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery attempt should be limited by 1.4820 resistance and bring further decline.

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Weekly Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
CHFJPY 85.59 84.04 +155 +1.81%
USDCHF 1.0576 1.0742 -166 -1.57%
EURJPY 124.67 122.95 +172 +1.38%
CADJPY 88.81 87.69 +112 +1.26%
GBPCHF 1.6082 1.6259 -177 -1.10%

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